Rajinikanth

2021 Tamil nadu assembly elections will have only two pre poll declared contenders by their parties for the post of CM.Rajinikanth and M.K.Stalin.Stalin appears all too tired and exhausted.May be because he was waiting for the CM chair for a long time and never got it.He is unable to take decisions and has no direction.In 2016 assembly elections if he had agreed for seat sharing with DMDK leader Vijayakanth the results would have been different.DMK would have won the election and Vijayakanth would have got ministerial berths.Both would have won.Jayalalitha would have retired to Kodanadu.Stalin was very much against the alliance though Kalaignar Karunanidhi was eager that the alliance be forged.Kalaignar had a very good understanding of the arena.Stalin didn't want another leader to share dais with him.He felt Vijayakanth's growth would hamper his future.He was ready to lose the battle for better future prospects.

Vaiko was keen that DMK loses the election.He used the opportunity to form the People welfare front.He anyway withdrew filing the nomination at the last moment which led to disasterous failure of People welfare front in the election.Vaiko wanted to prove that though he can't become Chief Minister he can stop DMK from getting the majority.He won.If what Kalaignar had wished had happened it would have been a smooth transition for Stalin due to ill health of Kalaignar.Maybe Rajinikanth would not have dreamt of electoral politics if Tamil nadu is currently having a stable government.

So the scene in 2021 would be different.Rajinikanth would have floated the party by then.There is very less chances for this government to be dissolved by BJP until 2019.By all means the next government in centre will also be BJP government.So the present Tamilnadu government will continue until 2021.

Vijayakanth will be left alone in the assembly election.He will not win even one assembly seat.PMK might try to form an alliance with BJP.Either way its vote bank is restricted to Salem,Dharmapuri,Cuddalore,Villupuram,Vellore districts.They might win around 10 seats mostly in these areas.BJP will form alliance with smaller parties and contest most of the seats.It will not do aggressive campaigning.Rajinikanth will not ally with BJP.But BJP will not campaign against Rajinikanth.It will be targetting only Stalin.

All factions of ADMK will lose deposit.ADMK as a party will be no more after 2021 elections.Tamil Nationalist parties will also not win even one assembly seat.Rajinikanth's party will be contending for all assembly seats without allies.Kamalhasan will not win even his own seat.He might lose deposit.

Left parties,Congress,Dalit panthers of India,Vaiko will be most probably with DMK.There is little chances that Thirumavalavan will enter an alliance with Rajinikanth.But it could happen.So the contenders would be DMK and Rajinikanth's party.Rajinikanth would not be contesting in the 2019 parliamentary elections as he might not wish to burst the myth of Rajini's image before the assembly elections.Also whatsoever might be number of MPs a party wins in parliamentary election it won't affect the centre.So he might not contest.

In Tamilnadu caste and money is playing a major role in elections in the recent past.There has been continuous protest for various reasons since the death of Jayalalitha. Pseudo Environmental activists,Pseudo Cultural activists,Pseudo Tamil nationalists are on rise.The propaganda has almost reached the mainstream that the common public is made to think that there is lot of conspiracies behind anything that happens in Tamilnadu whereas in reality Tamilnadu is much ahead economically than most of the Indian states.

People of Tamilnadu want a strong,charismatic leader.They are tired of the present government.Stalin is unable to win the confidence of people. Tamilnadu needs a government that could bring in investments, make things happen, have an amicable relationship with the centre and most importantly an icon. Rajinikanth fits the bill. Tamilnadu has rarely seen hung assembly.Even though caste and money plays a major role in elections today,most probably Rajinikanth will be the next Chief Minister of Tamilnadu.